Model

 01  Foreword

When the previous experiment is completed, the drug we designed will be put into the ant colony to test the effect. By observing the growth status and body changes of the ant colony, we can speculate and verify the actual effect of our drugs. For this process, we carried out mathematical modeling and analysis verification.

The Model is divided into five parts: The first part is about the preface, which is to connect the transition relationship between the experiment and modeling, and lead to the text. The second part is the cause and background of the project. It mainly introduces the growth model of S.invicta and verifies the drug properties and effects of the toxic proteins we choose, explains the harm of S.invicta and proves the effectiveness of our drugs. The third part is designed to explain the model of the spread and expression of drugs. A series of effects caused by the entry of drugs into the S.invicta population are analyzed and modeled. A mathematical model is constructed in the following three aspects: the expression of drugs in vivo, the spread and infection of drugs, and the transmission and enrichment of drugs. The fourth part is the existing problems and future work, which supplements the limitations of some models and the problems that still exist in our projects and experiments. The last part is the contribution and summary, which expresses the specific efforts and contributions of each member in the work.

 02  Background

Population growth model of S.invicta

Growth and harm of S.invicta

The breeding speed of S.invicta is very amazing, which increases the difficulty of control and protection. In the S.invicta population, the queen is a key role responsible for oviposition and reproduction. There are several or even dozens of queens in some S.invicta nests. Each queen can oviposit 1500 to 5000 eggs per day. The number of S.invicta can increase greatly in a short time, resulting in an extremely large ant colony. Some ant nests may have as many as one hundred thousand or even hundreds of thousands of S.invicta.

When S.invicta invade an area, they will cause the following problems: First, they will destroy the local ecological structure. S.invicta has strong adaptability. Once invaded, it will soon become the dominant species, not only eliminating other ant species, but also damaging the ecological balance and causing damage to the ecosystem. Secondly, they will lead to crop yield reduction. S.invicta directly damages crops by eating seeds, fruits, and tender seedlings. They will also carry pests and spread diseases, which have a serious impact on agriculture. In addition, S.invicta pose a threat to human health and safety. They are highly aggressive and inject venom after biting, causing allergic reactions, which may lead to respiratory problems and other serious symptoms, and even life-threatening. Finally, they may also endanger public safety because they infringe on public and home equipment, which may cause safety accidents by leading circuit failures and other facility problems.

Therefore, the harm of S.invicta is huge. The population growth model of S.invicta will be the first urge to set for us to understand the speed and horrible of its breeding. We construct a population growth model of S.invicta to predict the growth of S.invicta population and observe whether its breeding speed is so fast and horrible.

Establishment and prediction of growth model

More than 90 % of the ant colonies are workers. The average life span of 4-year-old workers is calculated as 7 days. The mortality rate of workers can be approximately regarded as the reciprocal of the average life span, that is, the daily mortality rate is 1 / 7 = 14.28 % ( days ). Before becoming workers, the mortality rate of other ants is as low as 2 %. The default ant colony has only one queen at the beginning, and the daily spawning amount y ( t ) of the queen is affected by the number of 4-year-old workers u ( t ). The growth rate r ( x ) is affected by the total number of ants x ( t ) ( refer to the population block model ), and the maximum capacity of each ant nest xm is set to be 20,000 ants. It takes about 60 days for the S.invicta to become a 4-year-old worker ant from an egg. In order to simplify the model, the immigration and emigration rates are not considered.

d x d t = r ( x ) x

r ( x ) = ( y x 2% ) ( 1 x x m )

In summary

d x d t = ( y x 2% ) ( 1 x x m ) x

By fitting, when there is no 4-year-old worker ant ( 0 ~ 60day ), the daily egg production is

y ( t ) = 25.9 e 0.346 t

1. 1~60day

d x d t = ( 25.9 e 0.346 t x 2% ) ( 1 x x m ) x

Drawing in MATLAB:

MATLAB

Fig.1 The evolution of the Numbers of fire ants colony from1 day to 60 days

2. After 60 days

In the ant colony, the number of eggs laid by the queens of the workers increased, and the number of eggs laid by the queens increased with the increase of the number of workers within a certain range, but the overall difference was not significant, while the number of eggs laid by the queens increased with the number of days of 4-year-old workers[2].

The number of eggs laid can be seen as :

y ( t ) = 6.438 t 0.494 + 20.871

At this time ( t > 60day ):

MATLAB drawing is shown below.

3. After 120 days

Drawing in MATLAB:

MATLAB

Fig.2 The evolution of the Numbers of fire ants colony from 60 days to 400 days According to this model, in only 350 days or so, an ant colony can develop from only one queen to a million-scale ant colony.

Summary

Fire ants are known for their quick reproduction. In this model, we refer to the Logistic model to predict the development of a population of fire ant colonies, for which we have an intuitive sense of the tendency of it. According to the results, in only about 350 days, the total number of S.invicta in a nest will reach about1,000,000.

Poisonous protein validation model

Introduction of toxic protein

Bacillus thuringiensis UTD-001, as well as the protoxin and toxin of this isolate, could be used to control pests such as fire ants, carpenter ants, Argentine ants, and Pharaoh's ants, including S.invicta. Cry3A-like toxins isolated from UTD-001 have been shown to be toxic to S.invicta.(Lee A. Bullaet al.,2003)

It has been shown that after treatment with papain in vitro, the Cry3A-like toxin prototoxin (73KD) forms an active toxin (67KD) that is toxic to S. invicta.

Determination of ligand protein

We retrieved the amino acid sequence of the cadherin-like protein BT-R1 [ 1 ] from Manduca sexta in the NCBI database, which has been identified to interact with Bt Cry protein, and paired it with its homologous protein cadherin-23 in S.invicta using blast.

Protein modeling and protein-protein docking

The homologous modeling of Cry3A-like protein and cadherin-23 was performed using Swiss-model. The modeling results are as follows

Fig.3 cadherin-23 left, Cry3A like protein right, see Cry3A _ like _ protein.pdb, Cry3A _ like _ protein.stl, cadherin-23.pdb, cadherin-23.stl

We used GRAMM Global RAnge Molecular Matching ) to dock our toxic proteins and ligand proteins. PDBePISA was used to analyze the docking results. The docking mutual surface size was 2465.8, and the binding free energy was-4.2. The binding free energy was less than 0, and the docking was meaningful.

Among them, the hydrogen bonds and salt bridge sites formed by protein docking are shown in the following table.

The docking surface is shown in the following figure (see the docking.pdb, docking.x3d file ).

Fig.4 The docking surface of Cry3A like protein and cadherin-23

The docking attitude binding free energy is less than 0, and the docking is meaningful. Our molecular docking simulation proves that the toxic protein we designed may bind to 23 cadherin-protein in the S.invicta and exert toxicity.

Molecular dynamics simulation of protein-protein complex

The dynamic simulation of the protein is shown in the section Existing problems and future work.

 03  Dissemination and expression of drugs

In vivo expression of drugs

Binary oscillation gene circuit

In order to detect whether the drug can be expressed in the S.invicta as expected, we simulated and predicted the designed gene circuit. In the design and construction of gene circuits, we refer to and adopt the binary oscillation model. The following is divided into four parts to describe it in detail.

Background

In nature, many organisms sense their surroundings by releasing small chemical signals and responding accordingly. For example, bacteria detect cell density by releasing and respond the self-induce signals that trigger the expression of specific genes at the appropriate time. This process of cell-to-cell communication through chemical signals is known as Quorum Sensing (QS) . In recent years, researchers have discovered the existence of binary oscillations in the process of QS, in which cell density repeatedly switches between two steady states. This oscillation phenomenon is important for understanding the bacteria behavior and regulation of organisms.

Purpose

The significance of this project is to gain an in-depth understanding of the mechanism of the binary oscillation phenomenon in the process of group sensing, and to explore the influence of the phenomenon on the survival and adaptation of organisms to the environment. By establishing a mathematical model to simulate and analyze the binary oscillation phenomenon, we can reveal the intrinsic law of the phenomenon and provide theoretical support for subsequent experimental design and observation. In addition, this study also helps to expand our understanding and application of ODEs in dynamic systems, providing new ideas and methods for research in related fields.

Model Content

Overview

In this model, we will address the following questions:

1. To develop a suitable model of the dynamical system ODEs to simulate the phenomenon of binary oscillations induced by populations in organisms. The model should consider key factors such as cell density, self-inducer concentration, and their interactions.

2. The accuracy and applicability of the proposed model will be verified by experiments. We will adjust the model parameters and structure according to the experimental results so that it can better reflect the actual situation.

3. Analyze the kinetic behavior of the constructed model to explore the mechanism of the binary oscillation phenomenon and its influence on the survival and adaptation of organisms to the environment. We will reveal the intrinsic law of the phenomenon by combining numerical simulation and theoretical analysis.

The Specific Content of The Model

The complete and specific formulas in the following contents can be found in the tex file.

1.For the simplified oscillation model

Fig.5 The simplified oscillation model

The ODE equations are:

The amount of A can be obtained as:

The sufficient conditions for further oscillation are as follows: 1.To ensure that the degradation rates of the key proteins A, B and C are similar, 2.and the degradation rate is appropriate to ensure that the group sensitivity threshold can be activated.

Before we compare A0 and A6,here we add assumption that A,B and C have similar degrade rate,i.e.dA≈dB≈dC.Thus we can take

Now A6 can be approximated to

and here we can derive that

Then subtract A0,as a result

The oscillation period can also be directly calculated. It can be seen that the lower the degradation rate, the longer the oscillation period. Properly increasing the degradation rate can slow down the oscillation period and make the oscillation more obvious, but too much may not reach the group sensing threshold.

2.For gene circuits

Fig.6 the binary oscillating system genetic circuit

The complete ODE equations are listed:

The numerical simulation results are

Fig.7 Binary oscillation curve result 1

Fig.8 Binary oscillation curve result 2

Summary

In nature, many organisms sense their surroundings by releasing small chemical signals and responding accordingly. The oscillation phenomenon is a big step in understanding the behavior and regulation of organisms.

This oscillation model aims to deeply understand the mechanism of the binary oscillation phenomenon in group sensing and explore the influence of some parameters on oscillation.

In addition, the theoretical analysis of the model also helps to expand our understanding and application of ODEs in dynamic systems, providing new ideas and methods for research in related fields.

Our contributions can be listed as follows:

1. We developed a suitable model of the dynamical system ODEs to simulate the phenomenon of binary oscillations induced by populations. The model considers critical factors such as cell density, self-inducer concentration, and interactions.

2. We verify the accuracy and applicability of the proposed model by experiments. The parameters of the model can be adjusted to adapt to different oscillations.

3. We gave some theoretical analysis to reveal the intrinsic law of binary oscillation. We proved the conditions for the oscillation so that, under some simple assumptions, we can ensure that the oscillation occurs and calculate the period and amplitude of the oscillation.

Digital circuit gene circuit

For the previously designed binary oscillation gene circuit, although the expected results can meet our requirements, it has encountered difficulties in real experiments, and the binary oscillation model system is too complex and is likely to be counterproductive. Therefore, we construct a new set of digital circuit genetic circuits to simplify the binary oscillation model.

Model Content

Overview

In this model, we will address the following questions:

1. To develop a suitable model of the dynamical system ODEs to simulate the phenomenon of binary oscillations induced by populations in organisms. The model should consider key factors such as cell density, self-inducer concentration, and their interactions.

2. The accuracy and applicability of the proposed model will be verified by experiments. We will adjust the model parameters and structure according to the experimental results so that it can better reflect the actual situation.

3. Analyse the kinetic behaviour of the constructed model to explore the mechanism of the binary oscillation phenomenon and its influence on the survival and adaptation of organisms to the environment. We will reveal the intrinsic law of the phenomenon by combining numerical simulation and theoretical analysis.

Parameter Description

Table 1 Parameters of chemical equation in gene circuit of digital circuit

Symbol Definition
kf1 The synthesis rate of nutrients
kf2 Synthesis rate of drug 1
kf3 Synthesis rate of LM17
kf4 The synthesis rate of LasI
kf5 The synthesis rate of LM17-LasI complex formed by the combination of LM17 and LasI
kf6 The synthesis rate of the rate at which the complex LM17-LasI initiates the expression of drug 2
kf7 The synthesis rate of the rate at which the complex LM17-LasI initiates the expression of TraR ( W )
kf8 The synthesis rate of the rate at which the complex LM17-LasI initiates esaI expression
kf9 Synthesis rate of TraR ( W ) -esaI complex formed by TraR ( W ) and esaI
kf10 The synthesis rate of the rate at which the complex TraR ( W ) -esaI initiates the expression of the cleavage product
kr1 Degradation rate of nutrients
kr2 Degradation rate of drug 1
kr3 Degradation rate of LM
kr4 Degradation rate of LasI
kr5 The degradation rate of complex LM17-LasI
kr6 Degradation rate of drug 2
kr7 The degradation rate of TraR ( W )
kr8 Degradation rate of esaI
kr9 The degradation rate of TraR ( W ) -esaI complex
kr10 Degradation rate of pyrolysate

The Specific Content of The Model

1.Expression of single bacteria in vivo

Considering the reaction and influence between substances:

① Biological safety device part:

The expression of nutrients is controlled by the anaerobic promoter, that is, E.coli can secrete nutrients for its own survival under anaerobic or anoxic conditions ( in the intestine ), and E.coli will die due to lack of nutrients under aerobic conditions.

② The core part of the line :

First of all, this line was also initiated by the anaerobic promoter at the beginning, expressing LM17, LasI , drug 1 ( protease inhibitor ), involving quorum sensing, so there are the following reactions :

LM17 and LasI are combined into a complex, denoted as [ LM17-LasI ].

Then, when LM17-LasI reaches the threshold required for quorum sensing, it will make the next promoter express and promote the production of drugs 2 ( toxic protein ), TraR ( W ) , esal.

TraR ( W ) and esaI are combined into a complex, denoted as TraR ( W ) -esaI .

When TraR ( W ) -esaI reaches the threshold required for quorum sensing, it will make the next promoter expression, so that the expression of the cleavage gene.

The basic equations are listed according to the above reactions and effects :

When LM17 is less than the quorum sensing threshold of LM17 ( = 29.4 ), kf6 = 0;

When LM17 is greater than LM17 quorum sensing threshold ( = 29.4 ), kf6 = kff6;

Similarly, kf7 and kf8.

When esaI is less than the quorum sensing threshold of esaI ( = 10 ), kf10 = 0;

When esaI is greater than the quorum sensing threshold of esaI ( = 10 ), kf10 = kff10.

Model Simplification

Assuming that the material degradation rate is negligible, all the above ODE can be simplified as :

According to the simplified ode equation finally determined above, we use simbiology in MATLAB to simulate and obtain the following results ( source file see : newmodel2 one.sbproj ):

Fig.9 Single E.coli expression line in vivo

The parameter settings : all kf is 0.7nM/s,kr is 0.07nM/s.

Operation results :

Fig.10 Single E.coli expression line in vivo

It can be concluded that drug 1 and drug 2 are delayed expression and positively correlated.

2.In vivo expression of multiple ( a group ) bacteria

Next, we consider the overall expression of a group of E.coli and E.coli lysis genes after expression. The change of OD600 during E.coli lysis measured in other team’s project was referred to:

Fig.11 The figure from the website https://2020.igem.org/Team:SZ-SHD/Proof_Of_Concept for details

Because the Y axis is OD600, we need to convert the number of bacteria. First of all, OD600 is proportional to the concentration of bacteria (See the website https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/648714725 for details.) , we can calculate the concentration directly according to the 8th power multiplied by the order of magnitude 10, and then set the volume to 10.Then the number of bacteria is the corresponding OD600 value multiplied by the 9th power of 10. After the conversion is completed, the red curve in the above diagram is fitted with python : ( code see OD600.py file ).

Equation are obtained:

The curve image is as follows:

Fig.12 This is the curve of the number of bacteria over time fitted according to the above items.

The Y axis of the function is normalized, because our number wants to be expressed as a percentage, so the Y value of the first data point is changed from 1.47 to 1, and the subsequent Y value is reduced proportionally.

Continue to use python to derive the normalized function (code see OD600.py file ), and get the change rate curve of the number of bacteria :

y’=-0.1430299*exp(-0.209*x)

Fig.13 Derivative curve of the curve of bacterial number changing with time

Substitute into MATLAB to modify the original modeling:

Fig.14 Multiple E.coli expression lines in vivo and overall accumulation

The formula for the number of bacteria is as follows :

Operation results :

It can be seen that the number of bacteria decreases rapidly after lysing gene expression, and finally decreases to about 30 % and tends to be stable.

Fig.15 The curve of the number of E.coli lysed over time in the genetic route we designed

Fig.16 The cumulative changes of drug 1 and drug 2 in all bacteria

The peak expression of drug 1 and drug 2 was around 11 s. At this time, the amount of drug 1 is about 70nM, and the amount of drug 2 is about 40nM.

Summary

By using MATLAB and Python to simulate the digital circuit gene circuit, we can find that the results obtained are consistent with our expected experimental results. First of all, for a single cell analysis, we can draw the conclusion that drug 1 and drug 2 are delayed and positively correlated. In fact, we must ensure that the protease inhibitor is produced one step ahead of the toxic protein, so as to ensure that the toxic protein in the S.invicta can be accumulated without interference. Then for multiple bacteria were analyzed, we refer to the results of other teams in previous years, according to the mathematical calculation of the amount of bacteria equation. Substituting it into the original model, we can get new results about the total expression of the population in vivo. According to the results, the number of bacteria decreases rapidly after lysing gene expression, and finally tends to be stable, rather than falling to almost nothing. At the same time, we can also determine the peak expression levels of drug 1 and drug 2, so as to confirm whether our design meets the limits of the survival of S.invicta themselves, and whether it has a negative impact on biosafety, the environment, etc.

Drug transmission and infection

Epidemic Model

In order to explore the spread and infection of endotoxin in ant colonies, and to predict the range and effect of our drugs after being expressed in vivo after being put into the S.invicta population, we established an infectious disease model for the spread of drugs. This project uses the most basic SIR model.

After control

When we feed the medicine to the S.invicta, the S.invicta will behave like an epidemic, spread the medicine within the population, and finally be cured (to meet our requirements, the medicine can successfully work in the S.invicta is considered to be cured. Our model is based on the SIR (Susceptibility, Contagion, Recovery) epidemic model. Here are some basic properties and assumptions of our model.

Assumptions

1.The population growth of S.invicta follows the curve in growth modeling. (Refer to Ant Colony Growth Modeling File )

2.The number of S.invicta population has been in a stable stage.

3.All S.invicta are susceptible individuals.

4.In our modeling, the healer is that the drug can successfully act in the body ( reaching a certain concentration ) ( here set the product at the beginning of the line to increase. )

5. S.invicta colony, ant nest as a closed area.

6. S (t), I (t), R (t) are continuous derivable functions of time t.

7.There is no incubation period of infection, and the onset of infection occurs within a short period of time after infection (consistent with the modeling of the expression of alternative routes in S.invicta ).

8.Other factors that may affect the experiment can be ignored.

Parameter Description

Table 2 Parameters in the epidemic model

Symbol Definition
S Susceptible people, groups that may eat bait
I The patient, the group that eats the bait and plays a role
R Convalescents, groups that did not function or died or recovered after eating the bait.
N Total number of S.invicta
S(t) The number of healthy S.invicta
I(t) the number of infected S.invicta
R(t) the number of removed S.invicta
β Sympathetic rate
γ Removal rate
S(0) Initial value of health number
I(0) Initial value of the number of infections
R(0) Initial value of removal number

The Specific Content of The Model

According to the basic model of infectious diseases and the characteristics expressed by the S.invicta after being fed with drugs, the ODE equation can be listed:

According to the setting of SIR, the value of the removal rate γ needs to be set smaller, set to 0.001, and the infection rate β is set to 0.3.Among them, (S ) in the second formula is the formula in the growth curve. Taking (S ) = 0, the relationship and result diagram of the growth, infection and rehabilitation of the S.invicta population were obtained by MATLAB programming. The code details are shown in the files SIRcode.txt and sir _ model.m.

Result

According to the infectious disease model equation listed above, the results obtained by programming are as follows ( the following time units are days ) :

Fig.17 Standard SIR model

The horizontal axis in the figure is time, and the unit is day; the vertical axis is the proportion of the corresponding number, which is the percentage. It can be seen that when the number of days is about 25 days, the infection rate reaches its peak. At this time, almost all individuals in the S.invicta population eat the bait and our drugs are successfully expressed in their bodies. Therefore, it can be proved that the drugs we feed are effective enough to spread to the entire population, so that there are toxins in each individual, and ultimately may achieve the purpose of feeding the toxins back to the queen and killing the queen.

According to the results of the S.invicta population growth model, we substituted 25 %, 50 %, 75 % and 100 % of the final growth peak (=10^6)in the ant nest into the infectious disease model ( S ), and obtained the following results :

25%

Fig.18 Results of the epidemic model at 25 % of the final growth peak

50%of the final growth peak:

Fig.19 Results of the epidemic model at 50 % of the final growth peak

75 % of the final growth peak:

Fig.20 Results of the epidemic model at 75 % of the final growth peak

100 % of the final growth peak:

Fig.21 Results of the epidemic model at 100 % of the final growth peak

It can be found that the trend of all images is similar, and the infection rate is almost close to the total number of individuals in the whole population after a certain period when the S.invicta begins to grow, that is, almost all individuals have eaten the drug and expressed.

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

1. Parameter β sensitivity analysis

In this section, we carry out the sensitivity analysis of the parameter β of the SIR model. The infection rate β determines the rate at the number of an infected S.invicta spreads disease to other S.invicta per day. We analyzed different β values and γ values to understand the impact of these two parameters on the spread of the epidemic.

Firstly, we define the range of parameter β, and generate 10 different β values between 0.1 and 1.0 with 0.1 as the step size. These different β values will be used to analyze the behavior of the model under different propagation rates. At the same time, we also define another parameter gamma, which represents the recovery rate, which is set to 0.001. In order to preserve the results of the model under different parameters, we create a result matrix and pre-allocate enough space to preserve the state of the model at 1001 time points for each β value. The final output is the state diagram of the model at different time points, which intuitively shows the evolution of the SIR model under different β values. Each β value is represented by different line colors, which facilitates the comparison of model behavior under different parameters. The results are as follows :

Fig.22 Parameter β sensitivity analysis

By observing the results, the following conclusions can be drawn:

①The initial stage of the spread of infectious diseases: In all cases, the curve began to show an upward trend, which represents an increase in the number of infected S.invicta. This is because only a very small number of S.invicta are infected in the initial conditions, and most of the S.invicta are susceptible to ant colonies.

②Propagation peak: With the increase of β value, the curve rises faster, the peak appears earlier, and the number of infected S.invicta at the peak is lower. This means that higher β values lead to faster propagation, but lower peaks.

③Curve decline: After the propagation peak, the curve began to decline. This is because the number of infected ants in the colony gradually decreased, while the number of recovered ants in the colony gradually increased.

④The smaller the β value is, the longer the propagation duration is. It is observed that when the β value is small, the rise time of the curve is longer and the propagation duration is longer. This means that reducing the β value will slow down the rate of infection, making the epidemic spread longer and the peak higher.

In summary, β sensitivity analysis shows the important influence of β parameter on the transmission rate and scale of infectious diseases. Increasing the value of β will lead to an increase in the speed of infection, but the peak value is lower and the duration of the transmission is shorter ; reducing the β value will slow down the propagation speed, but the peak value is higher and the propagation duration is longer.

2. Parameter γ sensitivity analysis

For analyzing the sensitivity of γ, we first fix the β parameter to 0.3 and then define the range and step size of γ. We generate 10 different γ values from 0.0001 to 0.01 with a step size of 0.001. Still pre-allocated enough space to be able to save the state of the model at 1001 time points for each γ value. The result map is still drawn to visually show the evolution of the SIR model under different γ values. Each γ value is represented by different line colors, which is convenient to compare the model behavior under different parameters. The results are as follows:

Fig.23 Parameter γ sensitivity analysis

By observing the results of the map, we can draw the following conclusion:

①Curve trend: All curves showed a trend of rising first and then falling, which is a typical SIR model behavior, reflecting the evolution of the number of infected people over time.

②γ value and peak value: With the increase of γ value, the peak value of the curve becomes larger. This is because the high γ value may also cause the duration of the infected person to be longer, so before the peak of the infection rises to the highest point, the infected person is still increasing, thus making the peak higher, and the time when the curve begins to decline is delayed.

③γ value and decline time: With the increase of γ value, the time when the curve begins to decline is later. This is because the high γ value leads to a longer duration of the infected person, and the time when the recovery individual begins to exist will be later.

④γ value and curve parallelism: It is observed that with the increase of γ value, the speed of curve decline remains unchanged, and the curve is completely parallel. This shows that the effect of the γ parameter on the recovery rate of the infected person may be linear, so the decline rate of the curve is similar under different γ values.

All in all, the higher the value of γ does not make the number of infections decline faster as we suspect. From our results, the parameter γ is not sensitive. We can consider the subsequent combination of β and γ for more in-depth analysis experiments, focusing on the impact of β on the results, and finding the key factors in the regulation of infectious diseases.

Summary

According to our results, it can be found that when the number of S.invicta is 25 % peak, 50 % peak, 75 % peak, and 100 % peak, the trend is similar, and it can infect almost all S.invicta populations within a certain period. This proves that our drugs can effectively carry out almost all S.invicta individuals, and play a role in successfully expressing toxins, which lays a very important foundation for the accumulation and transmission of toxins to the queen through back-feeding behavior. Through the sensitivity analysis of the two parameters β and γ, it can be concluded that the influence of β on the model is significant, so it is sensitive, while the change of γ has little effect on the change and influence of the model, so we think it is not sensitive enough. After that, we can focus on the parameter β and carry out more in-depth experiments and analysis.

Drug delivery and enrichment

Enrichment model

In order to explore the cumulative efficiency of toxin transmission between young ants, workers and queens, we constructed a toxin enrichment model to predict the final toxin content accumulated in queens, so as to determine whether our drugs can eventually kill queens successfully.

In order to simplify the model, the worker ants and worker ants are not considered, and the worker ants are fed to the young ants.

Ce represents the concentration of toxic protein in workers, k1 represents the transmission efficiency of toxic protein from larvae to workers, Iye represents the transmission rate of toxic protein from larvae to workers, Ne represents the number of workers, and Iye is related to the number of larvae Ny. Since the workers of S.invicta cannot take unlimited food, but will receive a limit of maximum food intake, the correlation between Iye and Ny cannot be a linear relationship similar to Iye = kNy, but an increasing function with decreasing derivative function. We use log curve approximation, where kw1, n1, c1 are the weight and bias parameters used to fit the curve;

Cq represents the concentration of toxic protein in queens, k2 represents the transfer efficiency of toxic protein from larvae to workers, Ieq represents the transfer rate of toxic protein from larvae to workers, and Nq represents the number of queens. Ieq is related to the number of workers, and the correlation and modeling method are similar to the process of toxin transfer from larvae to workers, using log curve approximation.

The number of young ants Ny and the number of workers Ne are determined by introducing the ant colony growth model. In the ant colony model, the ordinary differential equation of the number of eggs laid by the ant colony changing with time is y (t), and the ordinary differential equation of the number of workers changing with time is u (t).

According to the literature research, we know that in the ant nest, the worker ants account for 72 % ~ 95 %, and the soldier ants account for 2 ~ 3 %. Although the proportion of young ants varies greatly and irregularly, it can be inferred from the proportion of other ant species that the proportion is about 2 % ~ 25 %. We take the median proportion, Ny and Ne can have the simplified representation of the total number of ants in the ant colony model x (t).

Because there is no suitable data fitting, we temporarily set the transfer efficiency k1 and k2 to 0.5, and the parameters of Iye and Ieq are designed as kw1, kw2 = 1; n1, n1 = 2 ; c1, c2 = 0, and the actual parameters may be different from this parameter. However, according to the derivation of the model itself, we know that these parameters only affect the specific concentration and speed of enrichment, and have no effect on the overall trend of enrichment. Therefore, the qualitative conclusions drawn from the model have reference significance.

According to the model, we use the scipy package of Python to solve the differential equations, and use the matplotlib package to draw the toxic protein concentration in the workers after 120 days as follows.

Fig.24 The concentration of toxic protein in workers after 60 days

The toxins in workers and queens are plotted together as follows;

Fig.25 The toxic protein concentration in workers and queens after 60 days

It can be seen from the diagram that the toxins in workers and queens are on the rise, and the rate of toxins rising in queens is much higher than that of workers, which can ensure that after the toxic protein is poisoned preferentially, the purpose of targeted killing of queens can be achieved. Because the proportion of young ants in the total number of ants in nature fluctuates greatly and has no obvious regularity [1], in order to explore whether the toxic protein can still be enriched in the rear of the ants in the natural environment, we set the proportion of young ants to a random number between 2 % and 25 %. At this time, the concentration of toxic protein in the worker ants is as follows.

Fig.26 Under the proportion of random young ants, the concentration of toxic protein in workers after 60 days

The toxins in workers and queens are plotted together as follows:

Fig.27 Under the proportion of random young ants, the concentration of toxic proteins in workers and queens after 60 days.

It can be seen from the figure that the toxins can eventually be enriched along the direction of larvae- > workers- > queens, thus proving that our toxic proteins are robust in complex environments.

Summary

In this part, based on the ant colony growth model of cubic function, we established a toxic protein enrichment model based on ordinary differential equations by simplifying the cross-feeding relationship between ant colonies. The concentration of toxic proteins in each ant species is mainly affected by the transmission efficiency and rate of toxins and the number of ant species that transmit toxic proteins to it. At the same time, we considered the effect of the upper limit of feeding on the enrichment of toxic proteins. We used Python 's scipy package to solve the model we constructed, and observed that the toxic proteins in workers and queens were on the rise. The concentration of toxic proteins in workers increased rapidly in the first 10 days, and then increased slowly at a constant rate. The enrichment rate of toxic proteins in queens is thousands of times that of workers, which ensures that the toxic proteins are preferentially poisoned after killing the ants to achieve the purpose of targeted killing the ants. At the same time, by introducing random numbers, we simulate the complex situation in which the proportion of some ant species in the total number of ant colonies fluctuates greatly in nature. The toxic protein can finally be enriched along the direction of larvae, workers and queens. Therefore, it is proved that our toxic protein enrichment scheme has robustness in complex environments.

 04  Existing problems and future work

For poisonous protein validation model

We preliminarily verified the biological activity of the designed protein through homology modeling and molecular docking, but the toxic ability of the protein to S.invicta still needs to be further verified in future animal experiments ( see wet ). We will also consider the stability of our molecular docking through dynamic simulation and analysis. We are trying to find some algorithms and models that can verify and test the virulence of drugs, and then explore and carry out specific follow-up experiments in combination with wet experiments to verify the practicability and innovation of the drugs we designed.

Of course, we have been studying the dynamics simulation. Due to the time relationship, we have only performed 1ns of dynamic simulation. The current progress is : preparing to use GROMACS to perform molecular dynamics simulation on the protein complex to verify the docking stability, and simulating in a hexagonal water box and full atomic force field. Before the simulation, energy minimization and 50 ps NVT balance and NPT balance were performed respectively, followed by 1ns molecular dynamics simulation..

We initially confirmed the biological activity of the designed protein using homology modeling and molecular docking. However, further verification of the protein’s toxicity to S. invicta is required through upcoming animal experiments (see wet experiments). We will also assess the stability of our molecular docking through dynamic simulations and analysis. We are actively seeking algorithms and models to assess drug virulence, followed by specific wet experiments to validate the feasibility and innovation of our designed drugs.

Furthermore, we have been exploring dynamic simulations, but due to time constraints, we have only completed the preparatory steps. Currently, we are in the process of using GROMACS for molecular dynamics simulations on the protein complex to confirm docking stability. These simulations are conducted within a hexagonal water box using a full atomic force field. Prior to the simulations, we performed energy minimization and 50 ps NVT and NPT equilibration steps, respectively. After the system reached equilibrium, we performed 1ns molecular dynamics simulation of the protein complex, and the Rg and RMSD of the protein complex were shown in the figure below

Fig.28 Rg changes of protein complex during 1ns kinetic simulation time

Fig.29 RMSD changes of protein complex during 1ns kinetic simulation time

However, the final specific results and analysis are still waiting for us to carry out the next step of verification and modeling.

For Epidemic Model

In the SIR model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the parameters β and γ, and finally concluded that β is more sensitive and γ is not very sensitive. However, for the general situation, the greater the γ, the lower the peak value should be, and the faster the number of infections should be reduced. Not our results, of course, there is also a possibility that we have this : because high γ leads to longer infection time and longer duration of the epidemic, it will appear that the greater the γ, the greater the peak value and the later the number of infections begins to decrease.

Therefore, we need to focus on the sensitive parameter β in the future. Its change has a great influence on the model and is of great significance for regulating the epidemic. And we will also conduct further research on γ to determine whether there is what we call this situation. High γ leads to a longer duration of the epidemic, which will be a meaningful study.

In the SIR model, we conducted an analysis of the sensitivity of the parameters β and γ. Our findings indicate that β is more sensitive, while γ exhibits lower sensitivity. However, in the general context, a higher value of γ should theoretically lead to a lower peak and a faster reduction in the number of infections. Our results may deviate from this expected pattern due to the following possibility: when γ is high, it results in a longer infection duration and an extended epidemic period, which might make it seem like higher γ values lead to greater peak values and a delay in the decline of infections.

As a result, our future focus will be on the sensitive parameter β, as its changes significantly impact the model and hold great significance for epidemic regulation. Additionally, we will conduct further research on γ to investigate whether the situation we observed, where high γ extends the epidemic duration, holds true and merits further study.

 05  Conclusion

For our project, the model follows a primary sequence, commencing with the S.invicta growth model and the validation of toxic proteins, establishing a foundational context for our project. The S.invicta growth model portrays its harmfulness and underscores the project's necessity, while the validation of toxic proteins is grounded in our envisioned solution, providing an initial prediction. Regarding the protein we designed, we successfully confirmed its capability for docking and expression, aligning with our expectations.

Subsequently, in the core part of our project - modeling, we segmented our efforts into three main facets: modeling the in vivo expression of drugs, drug dissemination, and drug enrichment, forming a comprehensive logical framework. Concerning in vivo drug expression, we collaborated with the wet experimental group to align with the gene circuit they designed. We initially attempted to establish a binary oscillation model, fine-tuning parameters to achieve a flawless oscillation curve, thereby theoretically confirming the feasibility of our circuit. However, practical considerations and constraints in the wet experiment led to the design of a new gene circuit termed the digital circuit model. This model successfully validated the expected wet experiment outcome: a positive correlation between the expression of drug 1 and drug 2, with a delayed expression pattern. This demonstrates that our circuit can first express protease inhibitors followed by the expression of toxic proteins, substantiating its success from a modeling perspective. Furthermore, we enhanced this model by incorporating bacterial counts, obtaining peak values for the expression of the two drugs in S.invicta to ensure environmental safety.

The second fact involves drug dissemination, for which we developed an infectious disease model to simulate factors such as whether S.invicta can become infected upon bait consumption and the spread of infection throughout the population. After experimenting with various data scenarios, we achieved highly satisfactory results, with nearly all S.invicta individuals releasing toxins from the drug.

In the final part, we modeled the behavior of S.invicta feeding the queen and predicted whether the accumulation of toxins in the queen could reach lethal levels. With this, we conclude all the logical components of our primary sequence.