Raw material model
Introduction
Our system evaluates the raw material origins scientifically through two aspects of product economic benefit evaluation and comprehensive evaluation of system system, we evaluate the feasibility of the project by the values of NPV, IRR, PP, etc., and we rely on the comprehensive evaluation system to evaluate the raw material origins by 14 indicators in 4 aspects, which provides us with theoretical data support for choosing reasonable raw material bases.
At the same time, we know that theory cannot be separated from practice, we take the raw material base in Jianghan Plain as the sample data, and apply the raw material modeling model in Jianghan Plain to give the corresponding scores.
Evaluation of product economic benefits
According to the project factors such as operating activities, investment activities, taxes and surcharges of straw-negative carbon system, the net present value (NPV) analysis of investment and internal rate of return (IRR) analysis can be carried out by the cash flow statement to explore the economic benefits of products.
1. Investment net present value (NPV) analysis
NPV (net present value) expression is as follows:
Where: NPV - net present value
ic--Industry benchmark rate of return
t - program calculation period
(CI-CO)t--net cash flow in year t.
( taking ic as the current financial benchmark rate of return of 6% for China's plantation industry)
Through the calculation, we get: the net present value after income tax = 5,160,400 (million yuan), which is much larger than zero, and the product of surface straw negative carbon system is more profitable in the calculation period, and the product is more economically efficient.
2. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Analysis
Internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate when the net present value of each year of the project accumulates to zero during the whole economic life, and its expression is as follows:
The calculated internal rate of return after income tax is 31.2%, which is much higher than the current financial benchmark rate of return of 6% for China's plantation industry. The main reason:
Comprehensive straw negative carbon system building site, deployment scale, raw materials and products and other factors, this system adopts new technology to convert straw into biofuel, high resource utilization rate, better performance, higher sales margins and good market growth.
3. Payback Period (PP) Analysis
The static payback period expression is as follows:
Where: (CI-CO) t - the project's net cash flow in year t NPV (net present value)
Dynamic payback period P't is the time (years) needed to recover the investment taking into account the time value of capital funds, the expression is as follows:
Where: ic - industry benchmark rate of return
It can be calculated according to the net cash flow statement:
(1) Static payback period Pt = 3.11 (years)
(2) Dynamic payback period P't=4.02 (years)
It is expected that the payback period of straw negative carbon system is 5 years, so the calculated static investment period and dynamic payback period are within the normal payback period, so the system output product profitability program is feasible.
4. Profitability Index (PI) Analysis
According to the cash flow statement and the above formula, PI=2.37 can be calculated, which is greater than 1, so it shows that the output products of straw negative carbon system have strong profitability and financial feasibility.
Comprehensive evaluation of system
We formulated the comprehensive evaluation model process of straw negative carbon system, from establishing the comprehensive evaluation index system to assigning values by hierarchical analysis method, then conducting fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and finally analyzing the problems and giving countermeasures.
Establishment of comprehensive evaluation index system
Based on the data from the survey of straw-negative carbon system in the Jianghan Plain, we selected 14 indicators in 4 aspects that can reflect the comprehensive status of straw-negative carbon system and established our comprehensive evaluation system of straw-negative carbon system.
Comprehensive evaluation indicators for straw-negative carbon systems
Determination of weights based on the evaluation indicators of the hierarchical analysis method
We determined the evaluation system weights based on the evaluation indicators of the hierarchical analysis method, and arranged the weights of each indicator in the total target in descending order.
After calculating and organizing the total ranking of the factor layer T-layer layers
The weights of the indicators in relation to the overall goal are listed in descending order as shown in the figure.
Among them, "straw resource utilization" has the highest weight, and "policy support" has the highest weight in the economic evaluation. In the environmental evaluation, "air" has a higher weight than "soil".
Comprehensive evaluation of the system based on fuzzy theory
(1) Calculate the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix (Note: for objective numerical indicators, the survey data will be brought into the established affiliation function; for more subjective indicators, the fuzzy numbers obtained will be brought into the normal affiliation function).
(2) We refer to the opinions of big data experts to construct the judgment matrix, from the objective numerical indicators to get the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the operational factors of the straw negative carbon system（Ry），Fuzzy evaluation matrix for environmental factors in straw-negative carbon systems（Rh），Fuzzy evaluation matrix for economic factors of straw-negative carbon system（Rj）
(3) Determine the vector of weight coefficients
The results of the hierarchical ordering of each factor layer to the corresponding criterion layer can be obtained:
Weight vector of each sub-factor of the operational factor:
A1=(0.3852,0.1926,0.2040,0.1241,0.0941)
Vector of weights for each sub-factor of the environmental factor：
A2=(0.3333,0.6667)
Vector of weights for each sub-factor of the economic factor：
A3=(0.0803,0.0540,0.16660,0.0685,0.1478,0.3058,0.1802)
The results of the evaluation of the straw negative carbon system for the four factors of operation, environment and economy are:
The combined weight factor vector is A=(0.4000,0.2000,0.4000)
The resulting score for the straw negative carbon system is:
S*=A•S=62.3545
Evaluation: The overall score of the straw-negative carbon system in the Jianghan Plain is 62.35, which is between "good" and "medium", and there is still much room for improvement.
Problems in the Jianghan Plain
The Jianghan Plain has a large amount of straw resources, but it has not been efficiently utilized, so straw utilization can be optimized to improve the utilization rate of straw resources. Technological progress and innovation is not high enough, it should increase the investment in scientific and technological research and development, cultivate professional talents, and improve the technical level and innovation ability.
Conclusion
Global warming has sounded an alarm for us, the earth is facing a great challenge, to protect the earth is to protect our home. We focus on the theoretical study of straw negative carbon system, and combined with the actual development of the Jianghan Plain region, put forward targeted emission reduction all paths, and designed the straw negative carbon system model. With the help of the instructor, the research team worked together and finally formed a fruitful result. Of course, this modeling is just a beginning, and the team will continue to improve the model in the future, so as to make a modest contribution to the future of the world's green development.
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